Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,226$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(351 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,156.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,156.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $95$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(10 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $195$ on 2020-05-17

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,587$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(6.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,783.3}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,783.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,881$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(263 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,855.4}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,855.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,206$ on 2020-05-17

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $225,435$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,045.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(220,045.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,908$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(4.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,942.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,942.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68,351$ on 2020-05-17

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,486,757$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,513,622.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,513,622.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $89,562$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(6.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,355.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(91,355.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,124,930$ on 2020-05-17

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $244,995$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254,363.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(254,363.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,243.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $209,221$ on 2020-05-17

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,143$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,133.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,133.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,679$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(282 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,776.6}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,776.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,493$ on 2020-05-17

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $176,369$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{169,163.7}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(169,163.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,962$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(992 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,949.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,949.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,396$ on 2020-05-17

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Luxembourg recovered 95%
New Zealand recovered 95%
Austria recovered 89%
Australia recovered 88%
Korea, South recovered 88%
Taiwan* recovered 88%
Croatia recovered 84%
Andorra recovered 82%
Germany recovered 80%
Tunisia recovered 78%
Slovakia recovered 70%
Denmark recovered 70%
Israel recovered 65%
Cuba recovered 65%
Japan recovered 63%
Turkey recovered 56%
Lithuania recovered 53%
Malaysia recovered 53%
Uruguay recovered 53%
Czechia recovered 50%
Spain recovered 44%
Italy recovered 37%
Georgia recovered 30%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 29%
Serbia recovered 27%
Sri Lanka recovered 26%
Romania recovered 24%
Hungary recovered 19%
San Marino recovered 13%
Singapore recovered 10%
Kazakhstan recovered 10%
Jamaica recovered 9%
Morocco recovered 9%
France recovered 8%
Slovenia recovered 2%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,054$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(5.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,588.7}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,588.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,638$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,613.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,613.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-05-17

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,945$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(846 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,782.4}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,782.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(20.8 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(101.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $136$ on 2020-05-17

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,499$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(377 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,477.6}{1 + 10^{-0.099 (t - 26.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,477.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(4.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.0}{1 + 10^{-0.098 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(21.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45$ on 2020-05-17

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,242$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(3.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,442.6}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(15,442.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $629$ on 2020-05-17

Best fit exponential: \(108 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{624.6}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(624.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,050$ on 2020-05-17