Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,226$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(351 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,156.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,156.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $95$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(10 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $195$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,587$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(6.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,783.3}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 30.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,783.3\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,881$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(263 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,855.4}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,855.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,206$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $225,435$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,045.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(220,045.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,908$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(4.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,942.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,942.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $68,351$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,486,757$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,513,622.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,513,622.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $89,562$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(6.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,355.4}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(91,355.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,124,930$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $244,995$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{254,363.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(254,363.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,716$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(3.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(34,243.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $209,221$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,143$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,133.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 54.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,133.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,679$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(282 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,776.6}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,776.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,493$ on 2020-05-17
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $176,369$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{169,163.7}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(169,163.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,962$ on 2020-05-17
Best fit exponential: \(992 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,949.0}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,949.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,396$ on 2020-05-17